This week to 24 August, there were 2,763 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. This week the general theme across the country has been of an acceleration in case numbers. The Boardmasters festival in Cornwall seems to have been a particular hot spot. And of course with many people in close proximity it is easy for the virus to spread. Added to which as they return home festivalgoers are spreading the around the UK. Looking back now across the weeks since 2 June we believe a clearer picture of rising cases is emerging.

The table below tracks the overall weekly number of infections in Somerset in recent weeks.

• 2,763 to 25 August
• 1,911 to 18 August
• 1,481 to 11 August
• 1,407 to 4 August
• 1,285 to 28 July
• 2,056 to 21 July
• 989 to 14 July
• 470 to 7 July
• 452 to 1 July
• 257 to 23 June
• 110 to 16 June
• 50 to 9 June
• 31 to 2 June

This week the worst hotspot is once again Bridgwater with 431 new cases. And with one a rate over 500 per 100,000 one of the highest rates of infection in the country. Anecdotally at least we are told the highest numbers of infections are among young people under the age of 25. Taunton with 332 new cases, followed by Yeovil with 193 are the other hotspots. Several other parts of the county have rates that are more than 500 per 100,000, the actual case numbers are small. Most are under 60 cases in total.

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 24 August for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 13 August). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week there was 1 further death, in hospital, from COVID 19 in our area. Every death is a sad story and our heart goes out to the families, and loved ones of those who died. From a cold statistical point of view, the number of deaths remains very low. Especially given the escalating number of cases being reported.

This week reported figures for hospitalisations appears to be declining from a peak last week. But as ever, it is far too early to draw firm conclusions. It remains the case that numbers seem relatively low given the trend in rising case numbers that we noted above.

The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week has been raised to a range of 0.9 to 1.2. We do find this range particularly unhelpful. Especially as the numbers quoted have been tinkered with a little here, a little there each week. Is there any meaningful difference between a range of 0.8-1.1 or say 0.9 to 1.2? Our view is that the range quoted is all but saying we don’t actually know!

This week we have had the news that the eficacy of the vaccination is wearing off as months go by. We are not entirely sure why this is news, it is the same with nearly all vaccines. What would be of greater interest would be to know when the government is going to administer booster jabs. But to date we have not had a decision on that.

The vaccination programme remains of paramount importance with a focus now on all cohorts aged under 30. Fewer than 50% of 18-29 year olds have had a second jab. This is of concern after having seen the impact of Boardmasters. To say nothing of the apparent age range of new COVID cases in Bridgwater.

This leaves the under 18s. Frustratingly there is still no clarity in policy. We were supposed to see 16-18 year olds being called for vaccination. In some parts of the country we are being told most have had at least one jab. In Somerset the pace has picked up a little. Last week we reported that just just 180 under 18s have had a vaccination. This week 660 had a jab. But as a % less than 5% of our under 18s have had a jab as at 24 August.

However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions: