This week to 1 July, there were 452 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. In the scheme of things this is not a large number of new cases. But once again the number has nearly doubled and is four times the level of two weeks ago. Assuming the Indian variant, or delta as it is now known, is the dominant strain, the numbers are not so surprising. Larger case numbers are likely to be with us for a while. If we are honest, this is pretty much what we should have expected. The table below illustrates the point. It tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks. Once again we have put a longer period of week together so you can see the way infection numbers are tracking:

• 452 to 1 July
• 257 to 23 June
• 110 to 16 June
• 50 to 9 June
• 31 to 2 June
• 19 to 26 May
• nil to 19 May
• 92 to 13 May
• 81 to 5 May
• 79 to 28 April
• 63 to 21 April
• 19 to 16 April
• 103 to 7 April
• 244 to 1 April

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 1 July for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 11 June). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week there was a further update on deaths from COVID 19 in our area, to 18 June. Once again there have been no new deaths recorded. Which is encouraging. However as we suggested last week, we will not see the impact of the current caseload just yet. We will have to wait and see how the next 2/3 weeks pans out.

The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week has been raised again from 1.0-1.5 last week. The fact that it is quoted in a range of 1.3 to 1.7 is probably quite realistic. It is indicative of the rising case numbers and the potential for them to grow exponentially. Equally we are being told that the vaccination program should (and that is a big caveat) effectively “cap” the number of cases. In other words the cases will be coming largely from the unvaccinated part of the population.

The vaccination programme remains of paramount importance. Especially for those aged under 50. The pace is finally picking up a bit for vaccinating the under 40s. Last week 3,715 under 25s in Somerset were vaccinated. In addition 5,103 25-30s were vaccinated and 2,942 Somerset residents in their 30s

The Older part of the population is now largely vaccinated:

• Over 85% of those aged over 50 have now had 2 jabs.
• Over 90% of every age group over 40 have had at least one jab.

However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions: