This week to 28 July, there were 1,285 new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Somerset. You’ll have heard commentary throughout the week about case numbers declining nationally. And so it appears the same thing is happening here. There are still hotspots. Crewkerne has a very high rate per 100,000 currently. But Yeovil has just 141 cases this week compared with nearly 300 cases last week. Last week we were looking at predictions of new infections doubling each week. This week we are seeing a near halving of numbers. As ever all it really proves is you cannot draw too many conclusions too quickly.

The table below illustrates the point. It tracks the weekly number of infections in recent weeks.

• 1,285 to 28 July
• 2,056 to 21 July
• 989 to 14 July
• 470 to 7 July
• 452 to 1 July
• 257 to 23 June
• 110 to 16 June
• 50 to 9 June
• 31 to 2 June

Before we go any further however, our usual health warning about the figures.  Unlike NHS data these numbers include care homes and incidences of COVID 19 “at home”. The data is prepared to 28 July for cases (although different dates are used for some of the other figures – for instance deaths are reported to 16 July). The reason for this delay is to keep the numbers accurate – or should we say as accurate as possible. The daily totals published by the NHS are subject to constant revision, as not unreasonably, the data is constantly being updated to improve accuracy. It is also worth noting that the SCC area does not include North Somerset (so Weston hospital) or BANES (So the RUH in Bath) both of which are separate administrative areas.

This week there was a further update on deaths from COVID 19 in our area, to 16 July. And once again we are pleased/relieved to report there have been no new deaths recorded. We should note that total deaths from COVID 19 since the pandemic started has risen from 799 to 802 in the past fortnight. However this is due to looking back at previous figures and correcting them. We understand no new deaths have been recorded in the last 4 weeks. Which remains encouraging. We should be expecting this trend to continue if the vaccine has broken the link between cases and deaths.

We will continue to monitor the figures for deaths each week to see how that is panning out.

The R number (reproduction rate) for the South West this week has been reduced in a range of 1.3 to 1.5. It feels right realistic. It is indicative of the recent fall in case numbers. But whilst still recognizing the potential for them to grow exponentially.

The vaccination programme remains of paramount importance with a focus now on all cohorts aged under 30. This week least 80% of all those over 18 have now had two jabs. That is significant and welcome progress. This leaves the under 18s. Frustratingly it is is not yet clear if, as a matter of policy, all under 18s will be vaccinated or not. A further 155 under 18s have had a vaccination in the last week.

However, as always, we have attached the full data set here so you can draw your own conclusions: