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General election 2024: What the final YouGov poll showed for Somerset

POLLING company YouGov last night issued its final large survey – as Somerset votes in the 2024 general election.

In a county littered with close calls, the poll – of more than 42,000 people – predicted the overall result, as well as the outcome on a seat-by-seat basis.

The poll predicted a landslide victory for Labour, which it said would win around 431 seats, with the Conservatives relegated to around 102.

The Liberal Democrats – on the back of a campaign full of Ed Davey stunts – are predicted to get around 72 seats, with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, winning three.

In Scotland, the poll predicted the SNP will have around 18 seats, while in Wales, Plaid Cymru would end up with three.

YouGov’s poll was an MRP survey, widely thought to be the most accurate available in this campaign.

Matthew Smith, head of data journalism, said: “An MRP model, like any polling exercise, has a margin of error.

“We expect the Conservative shares of the vote to be between 19% and 25%, Labour to be between 34% and 43%, the Liberal Democrats between 9% and 16% and Reform between 11% and 20%.”

READ MORE: General election 2024: Final day odds and electoral forecasts in Somerset
READ MORE: Voter ID: A list of documents accepted at polling stations

He also said the poll showed a whopping 89 seats which featured the top two parties – Labour and the Conservatives – within 5% of each other.

In Somerset, of course, there are a number of races where the ‘top two’ are the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

All those seats are on the edge, and the result could vary depending on just hundreds of votes.

“What does this mean in practice? Our range for the number of Conservative seats is between 78 and 129 seats, while our range for the Liberal Democrats is between 57 and 87,” Matthew said.

“That means at one end of the realistic possibilities is that we wake up on Friday to find Ed Davey is Leader of the Opposition.

“At the other end of possibilities is that the Tories are in a secure second place.”

However, he said there was no doubt over who the poll showed would be the winner when results are announced overnight.

“What we can be absolutely confident upon is the winner. Labour are set to win, and set to win big,” he added.

“Even at the lowest end of our prediction Labour would have 391 seats and a majority of 132. At the top end of our prediction they would have 466 seats – a crushing majority of 282.

“Our range of possibilities goes from a large Labour majority to an exceptionally large Labour majority.

“And, it is worth saying, election day itself is still to come. Many votes have been cast by post, but the majority will be cast on the day.

“Some people will make their minds up at the last minute, the efforts of party volunteers leafleting and knocking up on the day do make a difference.

“In a projection when many seats are balanced on a knife edge, that itself could make a difference in many individual races.”

Remember, you must take voter ID with you to the polling station to be allowed to vote. Click here for a list of ID accepted at polling stations

What did the final YouGov poll predict in Somerset?

Here’s a seat-by-seat breakdown – according to the YouGov poll – as the county heads out to vote…

BRIDGWATER
Winner: Labour
Labour gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 25%
Labour: 30%
Lib Dem: 16%
Green: 4%
Reform UK: 24%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 0%

FROME & EAST SOMERSET
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 22%
Labour: 19%
Lib Dem: 35%
Green: 9%
Reform UK: 14%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 1%

GLASTONBURY & SOMERTON
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives (on 2019)
Conservative: 28%
Labour: 9%
Lib Dem: 48%
Green: 3%
Reform UK: 12%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 0%

TAUNTON & WELLINGTON
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 22%
Labour: 5%
Lib Dem: 58%
Green: 3%
Reform UK: 12%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 1%

TIVERTON & MINEHEAD
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 25%
Labour: 8%
Lib Dem: 46%
Green: 3%
Reform UK: 19%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 0%

WELLS & MENDIP HILLS
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 26%
Labour: 8%
Lib Dem: 50%
Green: 3%
Reform UK: 12%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 2%

WESTON-SUPER-MARE
Winner: Labour
Labour gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 28%
Labour: 36%
Lib Dem: 12%
Green: 5%
Reform UK: 19%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 0%

YEOVIL
Winner: Lib Dems
Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Conservative: 27%
Labour: 6%
Lib Dem: 48%
Green: 3%
Reform UK: 15%
SNP: 0%
Plaid: 0%
Other: 1%

The full list of candidates in each area is:

Bridgwater:
Pele Barnes: Independent
William Frederick Fagg: Reform UK
Ashley Fox: Conservative and Unionist Party
Charles Graham: Green Party
Leigh Redman: Labour Party
Claire Sully: Liberal Democrats
Gregory Peter Gerrard Tanner: Workers Party of Britain

Frome & East Somerset:
Martin Dimery: Green Party
Gavin John Heathcote: Independent
Shaun Hughes: Independent
Robin Moss: Labour Party
Anna Sabine: Liberal Democrats
David Swain: Reform UK
Lucy Clare Trimnell: Conservative and Unionist Party

Glastonbury & Somerton:
Tom Carter: Reform UK
Jon Cousins: Green Party
Sarah Joanne Dyke: Liberal Democrats
Hal Hooberman: Labour Party
Faye Purbrick: Conservative and Unionist Party

Taunton & Wellington:
Gideon Amos: Liberal Democrats
Charles Hansard: Reform UK
Rebecca Pow: Conservative and Unionist Party
Rochelle Russell: Communist Party of Britain
Ryan Trower: Green Party
Brenda Dawn Weston: Labour Party

Tiverton & Minehead:
Jonathan Barter: Labour
Laura Buchanan:Green Party
Rachel Gilmour: Liberal Democrat
Fred Keen: Reform UK
Ian Liddell-Grainger: Conservative

Wells & Mendip Hills:
Craig Clarke: Independent
Helen Hims: Reform UK
Joe Joseph: Labour & Co-operative Party
Abi McGuire: Independent
Tessa Munt: Liberal Democrats
Meg Powell-Chandler: Conservative and Unionist Party
Peter Alexander Welsh: Green Party

Weston-super-Mare:
Dan Aldridge: Labour Party
Thomas Joseph Harrison Daw: Green Party
Patrick Keating: Liberal Democrats
Richard Andrew Pearse: Reform UK
John Penrose: Conservative and Unionist Party

Yeovil:
Steve Ashton: Independent
Laura Bailhache: Reform UK
Adam Dance: Liberal Democrats
Marcus Fysh: Conservative and Unionist Party
Reecca Montacute: Labour Party
Serena Angela Wootton: Green Party

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